BTIG analyst Vincent Caintic reiterated a Buy rating on Upbound Group yesterday and set a price target of $40.00.
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Vincent Caintic has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors that suggest potential upside for Upbound Group’s stock. Despite a surprising 15% drop in UPBD shares, Caintic notes that the company’s recent results exceeded second-quarter expectations and the guidance for the third and fourth quarters appears reasonable, especially considering the seasonal weakness typically seen in the third quarter. He acknowledges a slight adjustment in EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 but maintains a positive outlook, reducing the target price to $40, which still indicates a significant upside.
Caintic addresses concerns about the third-quarter guidance missing consensus by 5%, explaining that the fourth-quarter guidance is expected to compensate for this shortfall. He emphasizes that the third quarter is usually weaker, while the fourth quarter tends to show the highest growth rates. Additionally, trends across Upbound’s business segments align with previous commentary, and improvements in delinquency rates suggest better write-off rates in the latter half of 2025, setting the stage for growth in 2026. With these factors in mind, Caintic believes the market’s reaction was overly negative, and the stock remains a Buy.
UPBD’s price has also changed moderately for the past six months – from $29.340 to $20.635, which is a -29.67% drop .