UnitedHealth: Reset Expectations, Diversified Strength, and an Earnings Inflection Driving a Buy Rating

J.P. Morgan analyst Lisa Gill has reiterated their bullish stance on UNH stock, giving a Buy rating on December 9.

Lisa Gill has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors that, in her view, position UnitedHealth for renewed earnings momentum and relatively lower risk within managed care. She believes the company effectively reset market expectations with its early 2026 guidance, creating a more achievable base from which to grow. Gill expects UnitedHealth to benefit from ongoing repricing in its core insurance franchise and a gradual normalization in the Optum businesses, supporting a return to stronger, high single- to low double-digit earnings growth by 2027. In her framework, UnitedHealth’s diversified business mix and substantial scale provide resilience against policy and reimbursement volatility that is likely to affect the broader sector.
Gill also sees the broader managed care group nearing an earnings trough, with 2026 set up as an inflection year, and considers UnitedHealth one of the “cleaner” stories in the space. She highlights the company’s ability to balance growth and margin in Medicare Advantage while navigating more challenging areas such as Medicaid and the ACA exchanges. In her view, the policy backdrop into and beyond the 2026 elections points to gridlock and a lower likelihood of disruptive legislative changes, which further supports UnitedHealth’s risk-reward profile. Taken together, these dynamics underpin her conviction that UnitedHealth’s current valuation does not fully reflect its potential for accelerating growth and margin improvement over the next several years, justifying a Buy recommendation.

According to TipRanks, Gill is a 5-star analyst with an average return of 9.6% and a 60.44% success rate. Gill covers the Healthcare sector, focusing on stocks such as Cencora, Cigna, and Labcorp Holdings.

In another report released on December 9, TR | OpenAI – 4o also reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a $367.00 price target.