Trevi Therapeutics: Favorable Risk-Reward as Haduvio Advances Toward Pivotal Chronic Cough Programs and Billion-Dollar Revenue Potential

Trevi Therapeutics, the Healthcare sector company, was revisited by a Wall Street analyst today. Analyst Brandon Folkes from H.C. Wainwright reiterated a Buy rating on the stock and has a $21.00 price target.

Brandon Folkes has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors centered on Trevi Therapeutics’ execution prospects and the value of its lead asset, Haduvio. He highlights that 2026 is shaping up as an operational execution year rather than a binary event year, with the FDA having scheduled an End-of-Phase 2 meeting for chronic cough in IPF in 1Q26, which underpins the planned start of a Phase 3 program in the first half of the year. The company also intends to launch a Phase 2b trial in refractory chronic cough in the same timeframe, and Folkes views Trevi’s consistent adherence to its timelines as reinforcing confidence in management’s ability to advance these programs.

Folkes believes Haduvio’s potential across IPF-related chronic cough and non-IPF interstitial lung disease could support over a billion dollars in revenue if Trevi commercializes these indications on a standalone basis, making the current valuation appear undemanding given the stock trades below 1x estimated peak sales. His $21 price target is based on a risk-adjusted DCF framework that incorporates a 13.4% WACC, a 10.5x exit multiple on 2031 projections, and success probabilities of 65% for Haduvio in IPF-related chronic cough and 70% in refractory chronic cough. While he acknowledges risks such as competition, reimbursement dynamics, regulatory and trial uncertainty, and capital needs, he concludes that the risk-reward profile remains favorable and that the latest regulatory and timeline confirmations substantiate his positive thesis on the stock.

According to TipRanks, Folkes is a 3-star analyst with an average return of 3.3% and a 42.64% success rate. Folkes covers the Healthcare sector, focusing on stocks such as MannKind, Omeros, and Milestone Pharmaceuticals.