Super Group: Buy-Rated Multi-Year Earnings Acceleration Driven by African Growth, Margin Expansion, and 2026 Catalysts

Analyst Mike Hickey from Benchmark Co. maintained a Buy rating on Super Group (SGHC) and keeping the price target at $17.00.

Mike Hickey has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors that point to a multi-year period of accelerating earnings for Super Group. He highlights the company’s strong positioning in large, still underpenetrated online gaming markets, particularly in Africa, where Super Group holds leading market shares and is benefiting from rapid growth in higher-margin online casino activity. He also notes that the company’s earnings profile should further improve as it modernizes payment systems, deploys AI-driven automation, and maintains disciplined capital allocation, all of which enhance operating leverage and profitability. In addition, a busy 2026 catalyst slate—featuring the World Cup, geographic expansion, and the rollout of Super Coin—provides multiple near- and medium-term drivers for customer growth and monetization, especially given the firm’s historical success in converting sports bettors into more profitable casino players.
Hickey’s bullish stance is reinforced by management’s long-term targets of solid double-digit organic revenue growth, expanding AEBITDA margins approaching 30%, and strong free cash flow conversion, which together support a robust fundamental outlook. He underscores that Africa remains the key growth engine, with a sizable addressable market, favorable demographics, and high revenue visibility from existing customer cohorts that drive growth without proportional increases in marketing spend. Moreover, he views the recovery in Nigeria and potential entry into at least one additional African market as important incremental growth and margin opportunities. Finally, his $17 price target is anchored in a 2026 valuation multiple that he considers reasonable given the company’s superior exposure to underpenetrated markets, margin expansion trajectory, and the potential for both earnings upgrades and a rerating from the current discount to global online gaming peers, resulting in an attractive risk-reward profile for the stock.