Spire Global: Cyclical and Structural Tailwinds Drive Undervalued Path to Profitability and Growth

Spire Global (SPIR) has received a new Buy rating, initiated by H.C. Wainwright analyst, Scott Buck.

Scott Buck has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors that highlight both cyclical and structural tailwinds for Spire Global. He points to a sharp rise in demand for space-based data and analytics, fueled by heightened geopolitical risk, more frequent severe weather, and stepped-up space and defense spending by European allies. Together with Spire’s strengthened balance sheet, this demand backdrop supports revenue growth that can increasingly translate into operating leverage and a clearer pathway to profitability, which he believes the market has yet to fully appreciate.
At the same time, Buck acknowledges that headline revenue in 2025 is temporarily depressed by transitory factors, such as the divestiture of the Marine division, NASA-related delays, and the U.S. government shutdown, but argues that underlying trends should become evident in 2026 with pro forma growth above 30%. He sees expanding gross margins and accelerating sales driving the company toward positive adjusted EBITDA by late 2026 and eventual free cash flow generation in 2027, marking a key inflection in the business model. Finally, he emphasizes that large, multi-year European defense and space spending programs create a sizeable opportunity that Spire is well-positioned to capture, thanks to its local manufacturing footprint and proven data-as-a-service offering, supporting both his Buy rating and his 12‑month $14 price target.