Jason Gabelman, an analyst from TD Cowen, maintained the Sell rating on PBF Energy (PBF – Research Report). The associated price target was lowered to $19.00.
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Jason Gabelman has given his Sell rating due to a combination of factors impacting PBF Energy’s financial outlook. One major concern is the full shutdown of the Martinez plant, which accounts for 15% of PBF’s total capacity. This shutdown, caused by a fire, has an uncertain duration and could result in significant financial setbacks, with potential costs of approximately $20 million for every month the plant remains non-operational.
Additionally, PBF Energy’s financial metrics have raised alarms, with a notable miss in free cash flow estimates and an increase in net debt by $0.6 billion quarter-over-quarter. Gabelman also highlights a discrepancy between the firm’s FY25 free cash flow estimates and consensus expectations, projecting a $0.7 billion shortfall. This, coupled with the revised valuation approach and the resultant lower earnings projections for 2025, justifies the Sell rating and the reduced price target of $19 per share.
According to TipRanks, Gabelman is a 4-star analyst with an average return of 6.6% and a 49.37% success rate. Gabelman covers the Energy sector, focusing on stocks such as Exxon Mobil, Phillips 66, and TotalEnergies.