Reinstated Leadership, Brand Momentum, and Attractive Valuation Support Buy Rating and $32 Target Price

Stifel Nicolaus analyst Matthew Smith, CFA has maintained their bullish stance on SMPL stock, giving a Buy rating today.

Matthew Smith, CFA has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors related to leadership, brand momentum, and valuation. He views the return of Joe Scalzo as CEO as a strategically important move, bringing back an executive with deep category knowledge and a proven track record with Simply Good Foods and its key brands. Under Scalzo, the focus is expected to be on sustaining growth for the Quest and OWYN franchises, addressing underperformance in areas like Quest bars outside salty snacks, and stabilizing the Atkins brand at a more durable scale. Smith also anticipates a gradual recovery in profitability, with gross margins moving back toward the high‑30% range, which he believes can support a healthier balance between reinvestment and earnings growth.
At the same time, Smith underscores the company’s financial flexibility as a key element of his positive view. The balance sheet carries modest leverage, providing room for strategic actions such as disciplined M&A to enhance the growth profile, while near-term capital deployment may favor internal investment and share repurchases. He notes that the stock is currently valued at roughly 8x EBITDA, which he sees as attractive relative to its growth prospects and brand mix, with Quest and OWYN now contributing over 70% of revenue. Based on his 2026 estimates, he applies a 12x EV/EBITDA multiple to arrive at a $32 target price, which underpins his continued Buy recommendation.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 34 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is positive on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders buying their shares of SMPL in relation to earlier this year.