Regulatory Headwinds, Slowing Growth, and Overstated Direct Issuance Upside Drive StubHub Sell Rating and $13 Target

StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A (STUB) has received a new Sell rating, initiated by Citi analyst, Jason Bazinet.

Jason Bazinet has given his Sell rating due to a combination of factors that, in his view, materially pressure StubHub’s future earnings power. He believes the company’s recent market share gains have been heavily dependent on elevated marketing spending, and as advertising budgets normalize, both growth and profitability are likely to slow. In addition, he expects the ongoing FTC action against Live Nation to make ticket brokers more cautious about buying primary tickets, which could reduce the volume of tickets available on StubHub’s secondary platform.

Bazinet also argues that investors have an overly optimistic view of the opportunity in direct issuance, where StubHub partners with rights owners to sell primary tickets on a non-exclusive basis, and he forecasts that this market will be smaller than current consensus assumes. At the same time, he sees mounting regulatory risk to StubHub’s ability to charge high markups on resale fees, pointing to current and potential future actions in the UK and several US states that could cap or constrain secondary ticket fees. Pulling these elements together, Bazinet anticipates a substantial cut to Street 2026 EBITDA expectations, leading him to value the stock at a lower multiple and set a $13 price target, which implies further downside from current levels.