Redwire: Operational Turnaround and Defense-Space Demand Tailwinds Support Buy Rating and $22 Price Target for 2026 Rebound

Redwire, the Industrials sector company, was revisited by a Wall Street analyst today. Analyst Scott Buck from H.C. Wainwright reiterated a Buy rating on the stock and has a $22.00 price target.

Scott Buck has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors that, in his view, position Redwire for substantial improvement in 2026. He highlights that the stock has already significantly outperformed small-cap benchmarks year to date, yet he still sees meaningful upside as rising global tensions and higher defense and space budgets—particularly among NATO members and in Europe—are likely to drive elevated demand for Redwire’s technologies. He also underscores the company’s active pursuit of large-scale strategic programs, such as the Golden Dome missile defense initiative, where Redwire’s VLEO platforms, sensor systems, and digital engineering strengths could translate into sizeable contract wins. In addition, he notes that some of the headwinds facing 2025 results, including NASA leadership turnover and government disruptions, are unlikely to persist, creating a more favorable backdrop for 2026.

Buck further bases his rating on expectations of cleaner execution and stronger financial performance as the company moves past one-off project issues that led to large cost revisions in 2025. He points to management actions such as ERP system consolidation, standardized operating policies, leadership changes, and the strategic acquisition of Edge Autonomy as measures that should reduce project risk and restore investor confidence. His model anticipates a sharp rebound in 2026, with revenue growing markedly and adjusted EBITDA turning materially positive, supported by demand that could even exceed his current forecasts given the original revenue targets tied to the Edge Autonomy deal. Taken together, the operational improvements, improving margin profile, and robust end-market tailwinds underpin his conviction that Redwire’s shares can climb further, supporting his Buy rating and $22 price target.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 48 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is negative on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders selling their shares of RDW in relation to earlier this year.