Reaffirming Buy on Tractor Supply: Post-Pullback Upside as Sales Normalize and Margin Pressure Proves Transitory

Analyst Steven Zaccone from Citi assigned a Buy rating on Tractor Supply and keeping the price target at $61.00.

Steven Zaccone has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors that support an attractive risk/reward profile for Tractor Supply’s shares following the recent pullback. He believes that management’s 2026 targets are more achievable, with expectations that comparable sales will trend toward the upper end of the company’s guidance range and that several categories that weighed on 2025 performance, such as seasonal, emergency response, pet and discretionary, will improve. He also views the recent gross margin pressure as largely confined to the fourth quarter, rather than a structural issue, and does not see evidence that Tractor Supply is ceding market share once industry growth normalizes. In his view, as same‑store sales growth recovers, operating leverage should improve profitability and support earnings growth.
From discussions with the CEO and CFO, Zaccone takes comfort that current‑quarter performance is tracking within full‑year guidance, with early strength in emergency response categories and a favorable setup in the first half driven by easier comparisons and potential tax-related tailwinds. For 2026, he highlights the planned building blocks of growth, including steady mid‑single digit gains in core CUE categories, incremental contributions from Direct Sales and Allivet, and stabilization or modest recovery in big-ticket and seasonal items. He also notes expected average unit retail benefits in 2026 from tariff-related pricing and commodity dynamics, which should provide an additional lift to sales and margins. While he has modestly trimmed his earnings estimates on softer margin guidance, his unchanged $61 target price, implying roughly 20% upside, underpins his continued Buy recommendation.

In another report released yesterday, TipRanks – PerPlexity also reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a $62.00 price target.