Reaffirming Buy on Simply Good Foods: Multi-Brand Growth, Margin Expansion, and Credible Long-Term Outlook Despite Sector Multiple Compression

Simply Good Foods, the Consumer Defensive sector company, was revisited by a Wall Street analyst today. Analyst John Baumgartner from Mizuho Securities maintained a Buy rating on the stock and has a $30.00 price target.

John Baumgartner has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors that support both the near-term outlook and longer-term growth profile of Simply Good Foods. He sees management’s guidance as credible, with early fiscal-year results showing no unexpected setbacks and suggesting that EBITDA targets are attainable or even beatable. The Quest brand continues to be a key growth engine, particularly in salty snacks, where strong velocity, expanded shelf presence, and retailer support help offset softer bar trends and limit downside risk. At the same time, improving commodity and tariff comparisons, along with planned growth investments, underpin his confidence that margins can strengthen into FY27.

Baumgartner also highlights encouraging developments in the Atkins and OWYN businesses that could drive upside beyond current expectations. For Atkins, distribution reductions are proceeding as planned while new meal bar formats are lifting volumes and a multi-year clinical study linking the Atkins approach with GLP-1 usage offers a differentiated, potentially powerful marketing angle. OWYN’s underlying demand remains robust despite prior formulation issues, with solid consumption growth, increasing household penetration, and broader distribution supporting management’s mid-teens revenue growth targets. Potential innovation in adjacent categories and increased marketing for OWYN further reinforce the company’s multi-brand growth story, leading Baumgartner to maintain a positive stance on the shares despite trimming his price target to reflect sector multiple compression.

Baumgartner covers the Consumer Defensive sector, focusing on stocks such as Primo Brands, Simply Good Foods, and UTZ Brands. According to TipRanks, Baumgartner has an average return of 5.2% and a 51.68% success rate on recommended stocks.

In another report released on January 12, Bernstein also reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a $31.00 price target.