Playoff-Driven Upside and Valuation Gap Support Buy Rating on MSG Sports

Susquehanna analyst Joseph Stauff reiterated a Buy rating on Madison Square Garden Sports on January 16 and set a price target of $351.00.

Joseph Stauff has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors tied to both near-term earnings dynamics and longer-term valuation upside. He raises revenue and EBITDA forecasts for the current year primarily because stronger New York Knicks playoff prospects are expected to more than offset weaker New York Rangers attendance and minimal Rangers postseason odds. In his updated modeling, he assumes a higher number of Knicks home playoff games, which meaningfully lifts full‑year financial expectations given that NBA playoff inventory is more lucrative than NHL playoff inventory for the company. Stauff also highlights that a deep Knicks playoff run, particularly an NBA Finals appearance or championship, would likely catalyze strategic interest in a minority stake sale at higher implied multiples, using the recent Los Angeles Lakers transaction at roughly 17x revenue as a valuation benchmark.

At the stock level, he emphasizes that MSG Sports still trades at a steep discount—estimated around 54%—to the underlying private-market value of the Knicks and Rangers franchises, providing substantial potential re-rating if that discount narrows. The implied multi‑year yield to maturity on the equity, at nearly 9%, appears attractive relative to the current 5‑year U.S. Treasury yield, reinforcing the risk‑reward profile. Although he notes downside risk to roughly $270 per share should Knicks playoff probabilities deteriorate, his central case of improved playoff-driven cash flows and a potential minority sale supports a higher price target of $351. Collectively, the combination of upgraded earnings estimates, favorable optionality around a minority transaction, and a sizable valuation gap underpins his reaffirmed positive stance and Buy recommendation on MSGS.