PBF Energy: Sell Rating Amid Projected Cash Flow Challenges and Market Skepticism

In a report released today, Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen maintained a Sell rating on PBF Energy (PBF – Research Report), with a price target of $12.00.

Jason Gabelman has given his Sell rating due to a combination of factors affecting PBF Energy’s financial outlook. Despite the company securing $0.4 billion in cash from asset sales, working capital reversal, and business interruption proceeds, this only partially offsets a projected $0.6 billion free cash flow loss for the remainder of 2025. While these cash inflows mitigate liquidity risks for 2025, Gabelman anticipates negative free cash flow in a normalized 2026, which poses a challenge for the company’s financial health.
Additionally, the stock’s decline following earnings, despite maintaining dividends and receiving initial insurance proceeds, reflects market skepticism. Although PBF Energy has assured its liquidity for 2025 and plans to continue dividend payouts, the market’s ability to efficiently resupply the West Coast limits the potential for margin expansion. This efficient resupply undermines the bullish case for PBF Energy, as the anticipated undersupply in California may not materialize as expected.

According to TipRanks, Gabelman is a 4-star analyst with an average return of 4.9% and a 50.00% success rate. Gabelman covers the Energy sector, focusing on stocks such as TotalEnergies, BP, and Phillips 66.