Patent Cliff Overhang and Uncertain Pipeline Offset Obesity Upside, Justifying Hold on Fairly Valued Pfizer Shares

Pfizer (PFE) has received a new Hold rating, initiated by UBS analyst, Michael Yee.

Michael Yee has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to Pfizer’s medium‑term revenue outlook and patent risks. He notes that a substantial portion of Pfizer’s current sales base—roughly one-third, including major products like Vyndaquel, Eliquis, Ibrance, and Xtandi—is expected to face generic competition over the next several years, creating a potential $15–20 billion revenue hole by around 2028. While management projects stable sales through 2028 followed by growth, his view is that these internal forecasts rely heavily on optimistic assumptions for how quickly revenues will erode and on a high level of pipeline success that is less visible and less certain than at key peers. As a result, he sees limited conviction that Pfizer can fully replace the at-risk revenues and return to solid growth after the patent cliff.

At the same time, Yee acknowledges some attractive elements in Pfizer’s story, particularly the recent deal with MTSR in obesity, which he believes could deliver encouraging Phase II data in 2026 and offers a differentiated monthly amylin/GLP-1 approach. He also points out that the company is actively seeking additional business development and early-stage assets, such as an oral GLP-1 program, to support growth beyond 2028. However, until there is clearer evidence that these pipeline and business development efforts can drive a new, durable growth cycle, he expects the stock to trade in a relatively narrow range and to lag other value-oriented large-cap peers like Bristol Myers Squibb and Merck, which have more visible post‑LOE growth paths. His $25 price target, based on applying roughly a 9x P/E multiple to his 2027 EPS estimate, reflects a view that the shares are fairly valued for now, justifying a Hold rather than a more positive recommendation.

In another report released on December 30, TD Cowen also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $30.00 price target.