Old Dominion Freight: Fairly Valued Cyclical Play with Near-Term Volume Headwinds and Limited Catalysts

Benchmark Co. analyst Christopher Kuhn has reiterated their neutral stance on ODFL stock, giving a Hold rating yesterday.

Christopher Kuhn has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to Old Dominion Freight’s current operating and market conditions. He notes that shipment volumes remain weak and below normal seasonal patterns, reflecting a sluggish industrial and macroeconomic backdrop, even though recent quarterly trends are broadly in line with his forecasts. While pricing remains resilient with solid growth in revenue per hundredweight, this strength is not enough to fully offset the pressure from declining tonnage and softer overall demand. In addition, he highlights that Old Dominion’s decision to refrain from aggressively absorbing Yellow’s terminals and freight, while conservative, has limited incremental market-share gains versus some competitors.

Kuhn also trims his longer-term earnings projections, indicating that the demand environment has not meaningfully improved and that earnings growth will likely be constrained in the near term. On his newly introduced 2027 estimates, the stock trades around its long-term average valuation multiple, suggesting it is fairly valued rather than clearly undervalued or overvalued. He points out that Old Dominion’s disciplined pricing strategy and significant available capacity should position the company to benefit when less-than-truckload volumes eventually recover, but he does not yet see a compelling catalyst for outperformance. As a result, he maintains a neutral stance on the shares and favors peers such as Saia and XPO for greater upside potential in a cyclical recovery.

According to TipRanks, Kuhn is a 4-star analyst with an average return of 13.1% and a 66.95% success rate. Kuhn covers the Industrials sector, focusing on stocks such as XPO, Old Dominion Freight, and Saia.

In another report released yesterday, Robert W. Baird also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $170.00 price target.