Nvidia: Reopened China Market and H200 Exports Unlock Significant Upside and Support Buy Rating

Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers maintained a Buy rating on Nvidia yesterday and set a price target of $265.00.

Aaron Rakers has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors tied to Nvidia’s renewed China opportunity and the scale of incremental earnings power. He emphasizes that U.S. government approval for exporting H200 GPUs to China effectively reopens a major end-market that had been constrained by prior export controls, with China historically representing roughly one-fifth to one-quarter of Nvidia’s data center revenue. Based on his analysis, resumed H200 shipments could translate into an additional $25–30 billion in annual revenue and an estimated $0.60–0.70 per share in non-GAAP EPS, underscoring substantial upside relative to current forecasts. He also points to indications of extremely strong demand, including large Chinese orders and Nvidia’s efforts to secure greater H200 production capacity from TSMC, which support confidence in the sustainability of this revenue stream.

Rakers notes that Nvidia appears operationally ready to ramp these exports quickly, with inventory on hand sufficient to meet a meaningful portion of near-term Chinese demand. While acknowledging that China may still impose its own restrictions and that U.S. approvals cap China-bound volumes at no more than half of U.S. sales, he views the net effect as materially positive for Nvidia’s growth profile. He incorporates the prior impact from the H20 export ban on Nvidia’s recent quarters to highlight how the restoration of Chinese data center sales can reverse a notable headwind. Taken together, these demand, policy, and earnings dynamics underpin his conviction that Nvidia’s stock continues to offer attractive risk-reward, justifying his Buy recommendation.