Jefferies analyst Laurence Alexander downgraded the rating on Nutrien to a Hold today, setting a price target of $66.00.
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Laurence Alexander has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors that suggest both opportunities and challenges for Nutrien. In the short term, the company has benefited from disruptions in fertilizer supply, which have positively impacted earnings. However, Alexander believes that these positive effects are already reflected in the stock price, and consensus revisions are likely to peak by mid-2026. Looking ahead to 2027, Alexander anticipates potential supply shocks for nitrogen and potash, along with margin pressures due to factors such as the LNG glut and increased demand from data centers.
In addition, while Nutrien has a competitive cost position and an improving product mix, the mid-cycle EBITDA is expected to be around $6.1 billion, which is below the company’s projections. Furthermore, structural headwinds, such as the shift towards precision agriculture and gene-edited crops, could lead to a compression in valuation multiples. These longer-term trends, coupled with potential regulatory changes, pose risks that the equity markets may be underestimating. As a result, Alexander maintains a cautious stance with a Hold rating on Nutrien’s stock.
Alexander covers the Basic Materials sector, focusing on stocks such as Nutrien, MP Materials, and Ashland. According to TipRanks, Alexander has an average return of -1.1% and a 47.06% success rate on recommended stocks.
In another report released on July 7, Barclays also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $64.00 price target.