Nucor: Mixed Q4 Performance and In-Line Outlook Justify Neutral Hold Rating

Carlos De Alba, an analyst from Morgan Stanley, maintained the Hold rating on Nucor. The associated price target remains the same with $180.00.

Carlos De Alba has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to Nucor’s recent performance and near-term outlook. The company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results fell short of market expectations on several key metrics, including revenue, EBITDA, EPS, and operating cash flow, signaling weaker-than-anticipated operating momentum. Segment-level performance was also mixed: both steel operations and steel products delivered earnings and volumes below consensus and Morgan Stanley estimates, even though pricing held up slightly better and scrap costs were somewhat favorable. While the raw materials segment marginally exceeded expectations, it was not enough to offset broader underperformance across the core businesses.

At the same time, management’s guidance for the first quarter of 2026 suggests an improvement in earnings across all three operating segments, broadly matching what analysts, including Morgan Stanley, had been forecasting. This indicates that while the near-term outlook is more constructive, it largely appears to be already reflected in current estimates and, by implication, in the share price. Given the combination of a disappointing quarter, an outlook that is better but not meaningfully above consensus, and an expectation that the stock may lag peers in the short run, De Alba sees limited risk-reward asymmetry at present. As a result, he maintains a neutral, or Hold, stance rather than moving to a more bullish or bearish recommendation.

In another report released today, TipRanks – DeepSeek also upgraded the stock to a Hold with a $188.00 price target.