Novo Nordisk: Oral Wegovy Approval Restores Momentum but Competitive Pressures Justify Hold Rating

BMO Capital analyst Edwin Chee has maintained their neutral stance on NVO stock, giving a Hold rating on December 10.

Edwin Chee has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to both Novo Nordisk’s recent win and the challenges ahead. He sees the FDA approval of the oral semaglutide (Wegovy pill) as a strategically important achievement that restores some momentum, especially because it gives Novo the first approved oral GLP‑1 for obesity and a near‑term edge in attracting patients who value the convenience of pills. This first-mover position, however, is expected to be temporary, with Eli Lilly’s orforglipron likely arriving in 2026 and intensifying competition in the oral GLP‑1 space.

At the same time, he emphasizes that Novo Nordisk still faces a difficult path to reclaim its historic dominance in incretins, given prior market share losses to both compounders and Lilly, as well as a crowded pipeline of next-generation oral GLP‑1 competitors. He notes that the Wegovy pill’s food‑intake constraints may diminish its appeal once more convenient oral agents launch, and that upcoming data readouts—such as the REDEFINE 4 trial for CagriSema—carry uncertainty after earlier results failed to impress. As a result, he expects Lilly’s products to keep eroding Novo’s U.S. share and doubts that 2025–2026 milestones will be sufficient to restore a clear leadership position. Taken together, these positives and negatives support his view that Novo shares are fairly valued relative to peers, justifying a Hold (Market Perform) stance rather than a more bullish recommendation.

In another report released on December 10, HSBC also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $54.00 price target.