Analyst Alec Stranahan of Bank of America Securities reiterated a Sell rating on Novavax, boosting the price target to $7.00.
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Alec Stranahan has given his Sell rating due to a combination of factors tied to Novavax’s execution risk and the timing of potential cash flows. While the new non-exclusive Matrix-M licensing deal with Pfizer confirms there is meaningful interest in Novavax’s adjuvant technology and brings an anticipated $30 million upfront payment in early 2026, most of the economic upside is pushed into the future and depends on later-stage development and commercialization milestones. Beyond Sanofi’s pandemic influenza program, there has been limited visible progress of other Matrix-M collaborations into clinical trials, leaving uncertainty around the pace at which this licensing strategy can translate into tangible revenue.
Stranahan also points to a challenging outlook for the COVID vaccine market in the 2026/2027 season, including weaker overall vaccine demand, negative headlines, and the likelihood of more stringent requirements for seasonal boosters, all of which could restrain Novavax’s ability to win share from established competitors. Given these headwinds and the long-dated nature of many potential milestone payments, he sees risk that the company may struggle to achieve its non-GAAP profitability target by 2028 despite the recent partnership news. As a result, he reiterates an Underperform (Sell) rating and sets a price objective below the current share price, reflecting a cautious stance on both the durability and timing of Novavax’s earnings power.
In another report released on January 5, Citi also maintained a Sell rating on the stock with a $6.00 price target.