BTIG analyst Ryan Gilbert has maintained their neutral stance on PHM stock, giving a Hold rating on January 30.
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Ryan Gilbert has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related to PulteGroup’s operating mix and financial outlook. He notes that while fourth-quarter earnings and the 2026 guidance were broadly in line with expectations, the company’s deliberate move away from speculative builds toward more build-to-order product introduces execution and demand risks, particularly in an environment where affordability is under pressure. This strategic pivot is expected to weigh on operating cash flow, with management guiding to a sizable decline in 2026 versus 2025, and it also leads him to trim longer-term earnings estimates, especially for 2027. At the same time, he acknowledges that management has historically executed well, and recent order trends and backlog performance support the view that the company remains fundamentally solid.
However, Gilbert sees limited upside at the current valuation, which he considers fair relative to tangible book value and the company’s return profile. Margin performance has come under some pressure, partly due to charges tied to clearing out spec inventory, and while underlying cost control is good, the shift in mix could challenge some of the drivers that have supported returns in recent years. The land position and community growth outlook appear adequate, but the key uncertainty is whether demand for build-to-order homes will be strong enough to sustain margins and growth during the transition. Balancing these execution risks against the company’s solid fundamentals and reasonable valuation, he concludes that a Neutral (Hold) stance is appropriate rather than a more aggressive Buy or Sell recommendation.
According to TipRanks, Gilbert is ranked #1741 out of 11984 analysts.
In another report released on January 30, Barclays also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $115.00 price target.