Natera: Accelerating MRD Momentum, Revenue Outperformance, and Improving Cash Profile Support Buy Rating

Kallum Titchmarsh, an analyst from Morgan Stanley, maintained the Buy rating on Natera. The associated price target remains the same with $265.00.

Kallum Titchmarsh has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors related to Natera’s strong operating and financial momentum. The company’s preliminary fourth-quarter results significantly exceeded market expectations, with revenue projected to come in meaningfully above consensus even after accounting for limited visibility on true-up contributions. Test volumes also outpaced forecasts, highlighted by record total tests and a notable outperformance in Signatera usage, underscoring accelerating adoption and reinforcing Natera’s position as a leader in minimal residual disease (MRD) testing. The substantial quarter‑over‑quarter increase in clinical MRD volumes, the largest sequential gain the company has seen, points to durable demand supported by an expanding clinical evidence base and a meaningful first-mover advantage.

Titchmarsh also notes that, while Natera is already a popular and well‑owned stock, these results should be sufficient to support continued share price strength. Forecasts for 2025 call for robust top-line growth, with revenue expected to rise by roughly the mid‑30% range year over year, and the company has begun to demonstrate improving cash generation, delivering positive cash inflows in the latest quarter and over the full year. Although investors are still seeking more clarity on the sustainability of growth in the Women’s Health segment and on the trajectory of operating leverage through 2026, the current performance and outlook are viewed as more than adequate to justify a positive stance. Taken together, the combination of outsized revenue and volume beats, strengthening MRD franchise momentum, and improving cash profile underpins Titchmarsh’s decision to recommend Natera shares with a Buy rating.

In another report released yesterday, Canaccord Genuity also reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a $285.00 price target.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 196 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is negative on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders selling their shares of NTRA in relation to earlier this year.