Neal Dingmann, an analyst from William Blair, has initiated a new Buy rating on MP Materials (MP).
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Neal Dingmann has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors tied to MP Materials’ unique positioning and contracted revenue visibility. He highlights that MP is the only fully integrated U.S. mine‑to‑magnet producer, underpinned by a multibillion‑dollar strategic relationship with the Department of Defense that includes a decade‑long price floor on NdPr concentrate. In addition, the company’s long-term supply agreements, notably a multiyear $500 million magnet contract with Apple and alloy and magnet deals with General Motors, provide significant demand certainty as MP scales its operations. The firm’s 10X Plan to ramp magnet output to 10,000 metric tons annually over the next several years further supports a strong growth trajectory.
Dingmann also points to operational momentum, with record NdPr oxide output and substantial rare earth oxide volumes being achieved while price risk is mitigated by the DoD backstop. MP is expanding its heavy rare earth separation capabilities, particularly for dysprosium and terbium, which enhances its strategic value in the permanent magnet supply chain. From a valuation standpoint, he acknowledges that shares currently trade at a premium multiple versus peers but believes this is justified by the company’s integrated model, contracted cash flows, and growth prospects. On his 2030 EBITDAX outlook, he sees room for further multiple expansion and derives an equally weighted fair value estimate of about $80 per share, supporting his Buy recommendation.
In another report released on January 6, Canaccord Genuity also reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a $79.00 price target.