Moderna: Strong Liquidity and Promising Oncology Pipeline Offset by Modest Growth and Legal Overhang, Supporting Hold Rating

Analyst Terence Flynn from Morgan Stanley maintained a Hold rating on Moderna and keeping the price target at $28.00.

Terence Flynn has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related to Moderna’s near‑term revenue outlook and pipeline visibility. The company’s preliminary 2025 sales guidance of $1.9 billion is essentially in line with consensus but reflects a meaningful decline in U.S. COVID vaccination volumes, limiting top-line momentum. While management anticipates up to 10% year-on-year growth in 2026, this still implies only modest expansion from a relatively low base, and current Street estimates already largely reflect this trajectory. At the same time, Moderna maintains a sizeable cash position of about $8.1 billion, supported in part by a term loan, which provides balance-sheet strength but also signals an increased reliance on external financing as it advances late-stage programs.

On the pipeline side, Flynn highlights multiple important oncology readouts in 2026 for the individualized neoantigen therapy partnered with Merck, including a Phase 3 interim analysis in adjuvant melanoma and potentially registrational Phase 2 data in renal cell carcinoma, but the event-driven nature and regulatory dependence introduce timing and approval uncertainty. Additional early-stage data across pancreatic, gastric, lung, and bladder cancers could be value-creating, yet remain high risk and too early to underwrite fully. Furthermore, ongoing IP and litigation matters around COVID-19 technologies—despite some favorable decisions in Europe and management’s confidence on royalty levels—still represent an overhang until damages and appeals are resolved. Taken together, the balanced mix of solid liquidity, modest growth expectations, promising but unproven oncology assets, and unresolved legal issues supports a neutral, Hold stance rather than a more decisive Buy or Sell recommendation.

In another report released yesterday, Bernstein also assigned a Hold rating to the stock with a $25.00 price target.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 47 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is negative on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders selling their shares of MRNA in relation to earlier this year.