Moderna: Pipeline-Driven Upside Potential Tempered by Execution and Revenue Visibility Risks Supporting a Hold Rating

William Blair analyst Myles Minter has reiterated their neutral stance on MRNA stock, giving a Hold rating yesterday.

Myles Minter has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related to Moderna’s near-term financial outlook and longer-term pipeline potential. He views the updated 2025 revenue guidance of roughly $1.9 billion as broadly in line with expectations, and he acknowledges meaningful progress on cost reductions, particularly in manufacturing and by trimming certain respiratory trials. At the same time, he believes that the targeted 10% year-over-year revenue growth is not yet fully proven and remains dependent on renewed ex-U.S. vaccine contracts and a successful commercial launch of the company’s flu vaccine to offset declining COVID-19 vaccine sales.
Beyond 2025, Minter sees 2026 as a crucial year in which multiple late-stage programs, especially the Phase III mRNA-4157 melanoma trial, could drive a re-rating of the stock if the data are favorable. He considers diversification beyond the current vaccine-focused portfolio and progress toward the company’s 2028 breakeven goal as important for unlocking further value. However, he remains cautious about the quality and reliability of the breakeven assumptions, particularly after management significantly reduced its projected cost base and revenue targets versus prior guidance. Balancing these promising pipeline drivers with execution and visibility risks, he maintains a Market Perform (Hold) stance on Moderna’s shares.

In another report released yesterday, TipRanks – OpenAI also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $36.00 price target.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 47 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is negative on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders selling their shares of MRNA in relation to earlier this year.