Mixed Outlook for Ventas: Hold Rating Justified Amid Slightly Lower FFO Guidance and Stable Growth Prospects

Ronald Kamdem, an analyst from Morgan Stanley, maintained the Hold rating on Ventas (VTR – Research Report). The associated price target remains the same with $70.00.

Ronald Kamdem’s rating is based on Ventas’s recent business update, which showed a mixed outlook for the company’s financial performance. The company raised its 2025 guidance for Normalized Funds from Operations (FFO) per share to $3.41, which is a 7% increase year-over-year. However, this figure is slightly below the consensus estimate of $3.44, indicating some caution in the company’s growth prospects.
Additionally, while Ventas improved its guidance for SHOP Same-Store Cash Net Operating Income (NOI) to 14.0%, aligning with market expectations, the occupancy rates have been lower than anticipated due to elevated mortality rates. Despite stronger-than-expected revenue per occupied room and favorable labor expenses, the overall external growth pipeline remains unchanged at $1.5 billion. These factors combined suggest a stable but not overly optimistic outlook, justifying the Hold rating.

In another report released on May 12, Scotiabank also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $71.00 price target.