Mixed Financial Outlook Leads to Hold Rating for Pembina Pipeline Amid Marketing Challenges and Elevated Capital Expenditures

Sam Burwell, an analyst from Jefferies, maintained the Hold rating on Pembina Pipeline. The associated price target remains the same with C$54.00.

Sam Burwell has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors influencing Pembina Pipeline’s financial outlook. The company’s EBITDA guidance for 2026 is slightly below consensus estimates, primarily due to challenges in their Marketing segment, which is expected to see a decrease in earnings compared to the previous year. This decline is attributed to tighter frac spreads and crude differentials, which have impacted the company’s projections.
Additionally, Pembina Pipeline is experiencing elevated capital expenditures due to peak spending on the Cedar project. However, the guidance is not significantly above expectations, and the company anticipates increased EBITDA from this project following the sanctioning of the Fox Creek-Namao development. Despite these challenges, the fee-based EBITDA guidance remains slightly above consensus, suggesting some stability in the company’s core operations. Overall, these mixed signals have led to the Hold rating as the market awaits further clarity on long-term growth prospects expected in early 2026.

Burwell covers the Energy sector, focusing on stocks such as Pembina Pipeline, Enbridge, and Gibson Energy. According to TipRanks, Burwell has an average return of 15.2% and a 66.23% success rate on recommended stocks.