Maintaining Hold on ON24: Fair Takeover Valuation by Cvent Limits Upside but Provides Attractive Exit for Shareholders

William Blair analyst Arjun Bhatia has maintained their neutral stance on ONTF stock, giving a Hold rating today.

Arjun Bhatia has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to ON24’s pending acquisition and its underlying fundamentals. He notes that the agreed all-cash buyout by Cvent at $8.10 per share reflects a sizable premium to recent trading levels and delivers a valuation that the company has rarely sustained in the public markets. The purchase price, which equates to roughly 1.9x projected 2026 revenue and 32x expected 2026 free cash flow, is viewed as a reasonable outcome given ON24’s multi-year stretch of declining revenue and operational challenges.

At the same time, Bhatia believes that ON24’s long-term prospects are more attractive as part of Cvent than as an independent company, given the strategic fit between ON24’s digital engagement and webinar strengths and Cvent’s broader event management suite. He does not expect competing bids to emerge and anticipates the transaction will close as announced, which limits further upside for the stock from current levels. For existing shareholders, he views the deal as a strong liquidity event, but ongoing risks—such as customer budget tightening, churn, and competitive pressures—reinforce the view that the current offer is an appropriate exit point rather than a catalyst for a higher rating. As a result, he maintains a Hold stance, reflecting limited upside beyond the agreed takeover price while recognizing the fairness of the transaction terms.