Maintaining Hold on Netflix: Solid 2026 Fundamentals Offset by Valuation, M&A Uncertainty, and Regulatory Overhang

Benchmark Co. analyst Daniel Kurnos has maintained their neutral stance on NFLX stock, giving a Hold rating today.

Daniel Kurnos has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to both Netflix’s solid fundamentals and the surrounding deal uncertainty. He notes that Netflix is positioned to deliver healthy 2026 revenue and operating income, supported by a strong connected TV backdrop, improving international monetization, and growing use of programmatic advertising and Amazon’s DSP, including early efforts in the SMB segment. At the same time, Netflix’s current valuation, now under roughly 24x 2026 adjusted operating income after recent M&A-related volatility, looks more balanced as consensus forecasts have largely converged with his own, leaving limited upside surprise versus current expectations. He also highlights that while a price increase is widely anticipated and likely supportive to results, any deviation in timing or magnitude could affect the near-term narrative.

Kurnos further points out that the ongoing M&A “love triangle,” particularly around a potential Warner Bros. Discovery transaction, injects additional risk into the stock. He sees Netflix ultimately well-positioned whether or not a deal occurs—either as a more powerful combined platform or as a beneficiary of reduced competitive intensity if no transaction succeeds. However, he is skeptical that any bidder will easily clear global regulatory hurdles, and expects more bidding noise in the short term, which could pressure the shares if Netflix is perceived as needing to match offers. In his view, this mix of strong but largely recognized fundamentals, together with regulatory and deal overhangs, supports maintaining a neutral Hold stance rather than moving to a more aggressive rating.

Kurnos covers the Communication Services sector, focusing on stocks such as Netflix, Magnite, and Zillow Group Class A. According to TipRanks, Kurnos has an average return of 7.0% and a 51.36% success rate on recommended stocks.

In another report released today, TipRanks – xAI also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $97.00 price target.