Maintaining Buy on Match Group: Undervalued Growth Driven by Hinge Momentum and Tinder Product Improvements

Analyst John Blackledge from TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating on Match Group and keeping the price target at $40.00.

John Blackledge has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors tied to Match Group’s growth profile and valuation. He expects overall revenue to continue growing, supported by strong momentum at Hinge, which is projected to deliver robust double-digit growth and meaningful incremental revenue in 2026. At the same time, he views management’s outlook for mid-single-digit company-wide growth as achievable, even with relatively flat Tinder revenue, given solid gains in revenue per payer and favorable foreign exchange effects.

Blackledge also highlights ongoing product and user-experience improvements at Tinder—such as enhanced verification, interface upgrades, and app optimization—as catalysts that could gradually stabilize user trends and improve engagement, particularly among younger demographics. Despite near-term softness in Tinder payers, he believes these initiatives, combined with Match’s healthy free cash flow generation, are not fully reflected in the stock’s current trading multiples. On his 2026 estimates, Match appears inexpensive on EV/EBITDA, P/E, and free cash flow yield metrics, leading him to maintain a Buy rating and a $40 price target.

Blackledge covers the Communication Services sector, focusing on stocks such as Alphabet Class C, Meta Platforms, and Netflix. According to TipRanks, Blackledge has an average return of 13.4% and a 57.11% success rate on recommended stocks.