Maintaining Buy on Chevron: Attractive Long-Term Value Despite Hess Dilution and Near-Term Estimate Revisions

Alastair Syme, an analyst from Citi, maintained the Buy rating on Chevron. The associated price target is $179.00.

Alastair Syme has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors that, in his view, continue to support an attractive risk‑reward for Chevron’s equity. He updates his earnings forecasts to incorporate slightly stronger-than-expected macro conditions for the fourth quarter of 2025, including modestly higher oil and gas prices and firmer refining margins, which underpin solid cash flow generation. At the same time, he factors in increased upstream downtime related to lower loadings from the CPC system, ensuring that his projections reflect a more conservative production outlook. Despite these operational headwinds, Syme’s estimates still point to robust long‑term earnings power and cash returns relative to the current share price.

He also adjusts his model to account fully for the dilution associated with the Hess (HES) transaction, leading to a small reduction in projected EPS for 2026‑2030 and a modest decrease in his DCF-derived price target. Even with this dilution, his valuation work suggests meaningful upside remains versus the market price, supporting the continuation of a positive recommendation. In his assessment, Chevron’s scale, diversified portfolio and enhanced growth profile post‑transaction leave it well placed to benefit from the current commodity backdrop. Taken together, these elements justify maintaining a Buy rating, as the long‑term value proposition remains compelling despite near-term estimate revisions.