Macquarie Group: Fair Valuation and Solid Earnings Outlook Support Neutral (Hold) Recommendation

In a report released today, Brendan Sproules from Goldman Sachs upgraded Macquarie Group Limited to a Hold, with a price target of A$208.73.

Brendan Sproules has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to both valuation and earnings outlook. After the stock’s sharp decline following the 1H26 result and partial recovery, he now views Macquarie Group’s share price as broadly aligned with its medium‑term earnings prospects. He expects a notably stronger second half, supported by the completed sale of the US and European public markets business to Nomura and more favourable US winter conditions, which together should allow the company to meet its FY26 cash NPAT guidance.

Sproules also anticipates a healthier backdrop in FY27, including better natural gas pricing and volatility, increased transaction activity and robust performance fees, which underpin his forecast of solid cash NPAT growth. At the same time, he flags a risk that market expectations may remain too optimistic, particularly as some analysts may not have fully adjusted for the earnings impact of the Nomura divestment. Balancing this improved growth profile against the risk of consensus downgrades and a valuation he now sees as fair, he concludes that a Hold (Neutral) stance is appropriate, supported by his revised 12‑month target price of A$208.73.