Macquarie Group: Balancing Post-Divestment Earnings Upside with Execution Risks Justifies Hold Rating

Analyst Andrei Stadnik from Morgan Stanley maintained a Hold rating on Macquarie Group Limited and increased the price target to A$221.00 from A$216.00.

Andrei Stadnik has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors that balance improving fundamentals with lingering uncertainties. Following the sale of Macquarie’s northern hemisphere public asset management business, he expects a near-term boost to FY26 earnings and a recovery in return on equity, but also anticipates a moderation in profit growth beyond FY26 as the lost earnings from the divested unit weigh on results. While his forecasts point to solid earnings expansion in FY26, they fall just short of sustaining double-digit growth in FY27, suggesting that the current valuation already reflects much of the expected improvement.
At the same time, Stadnik sees upside optionality if Macquarie can successfully accelerate growth in its alternatives platform and benefit more fully from a rebound in global capital markets. Potential bolt-on acquisitions, stronger organic fundraising in private markets, and better monetisation of equity investments could all lift earnings above his base case, but these drivers remain execution- and market-dependent. With the stock offering only a moderate upside to his price target and key growth catalysts not yet fully visible or de-risked, he concludes that a neutral, or Hold, stance is appropriate for now.