Lithium Royalty Corp.: Strategic Portfolio Strength but Limited Upside Amid Altius Takeover, Supporting a Hold Rating

Lithium Royalty Corp., the Basic Materials sector company, was revisited by a Wall Street analyst today. Analyst Brian MacArthur from Raymond James maintained a Hold rating on the stock and has a C$9.50 price target.

Brian MacArthur has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related both to valuation and the pending acquisition by Altius. He notes that Lithium Royalty Corp. provides diversified exposure to lithium prices with limited operating and capital cost risk, supported by a portfolio focused on relatively attractive jurisdictions, high-grade assets, and established operators. The newly announced acquisition of the Goulamina royalty adds another long‑life, quality lithium asset with fixed‑term, volume‑capped USD‑denominated cash flows, funded through internal resources and a bridge facility from Altius. However, with the Altius takeover agreement in place, the upside for existing shareholders is now largely defined by the agreed purchase consideration, limiting scope for significant multiple or NAV expansion beyond the deal terms.
MacArthur’s C$9.50 target price, derived from a blend of NAV and cash‑flow‑based multiples that are in line with other royalty companies, effectively aligns with the Altius cash offer, reinforcing a neutral risk‑reward profile at current levels. The fact that major shareholders, including Royalty Capital Funds and Riverstone, as well as the board and management, have already committed to support the transaction further reduces the likelihood of a higher competing bid or a standalone rerating. With the transaction not subject to financing conditions and expected to close around the end of the first quarter of 2026, he views the shares as fairly valued against the defined takeout price. As a result, despite the strategic merits of the royalty portfolio and the Goulamina addition, he concludes that the stock merits a Hold (Market Perform) rating rather than a more aggressive recommendation.