Landstar System: Near-Term Operational Improvements Offset by Uncertain Rate Recovery Justify Hold Rating and $150 Target

TD Cowen analyst Jason Seidl reiterated a Hold rating on Landstar System today and set a price target of $150.00.

Jason Seidl has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related to both near‑term support and lingering uncertainties around Landstar System’s outlook. He notes that while fourth-quarter results were distorted by sizable, non-recurring insurance and claims charges, underlying metrics such as trucking revenue per load showed improvement in January, helped by regulatory capacity reductions and weather-related tightness. However, he views these tailwinds as potentially temporary, emphasizing that the true test will come with spring demand, when it will become clearer whether van rates can move meaningfully higher and sustain better profitability. The price target remains unchanged at $150, reflecting a view that the current valuation already discounts much of the foreseeable upside.

At the same time, Seidl acknowledges positive signs, including strong growth in BCO utilization and better-than-seasonal trends in yields, which could allow first-quarter revenue performance to beat typical patterns. Flatbed and unsided business did show sequential improvement, but overall industrial demand remains soft, and any more robust 2026 scenario depends on a still-uncertain recovery in housing and interest-rate conditions. Management’s decision to withhold formal first-quarter guidance, combined with expected pressure on variable contribution margins, underlines the near-term earnings risk if rates fail to strengthen through the spring. Given this balance of improving operational metrics but limited visibility on a sustained up-cycle, Seidl concludes that a Hold rating is appropriate at this time.

In another report released today, TipRanks – xAI also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $161.00 price target.