Keyera: Temporary AEF Setback Creates Discounted Entry Point, Long-Term Fundamentals Support Buy Rating

TD Cowen analyst Aaron Macneil has maintained their bullish stance on KEY stock, giving a Buy rating on January 16.

Aaron Macneil has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors that, despite near‑term estimate reductions, support an attractive longer‑term risk‑reward profile for Keyera. He acknowledges the impact of the unplanned AEF event on near‑term financial performance and has accordingly trimmed forecasts and lowered the target price to better reflect this disruption. However, he views the underlying asset base as resilient, with Keyera’s core midstream and infrastructure operations expected to remain stable and continue generating solid cash flows. In his view, management’s track record of executing projects and managing operational challenges helps mitigate the temporary setback.

At the same time, Macneil sees upside potential as the AEF issue is resolved and as volumes and utilization gradually normalize, supporting a recovery in earnings and cash flow metrics. He believes the balance sheet and liquidity position are sufficient to weather the short‑term headwinds while still funding key growth initiatives. The adjusted valuation, after incorporating lower estimates and a reduced target, leaves the shares trading at a discount to their historical and peer multiples, which he considers unjustified given the company’s long‑term fundamentals. As a result, he maintains a Buy recommendation, viewing the current weakness as an opportunity for investors with a medium‑ to long‑term horizon.

According to TipRanks, Macneil is an analyst with an average return of -3.0% and a 42.01% success rate. Macneil covers the Energy sector, focusing on stocks such as Pembina Pipeline, Gibson Energy, and Keyera Corp..

In another report released on January 16, Scotiabank also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a C$55.00 price target.