Intel: Near-Term Headwinds and Competitive Pressures Offset by Long-Term Foundry Optionality, Justifying a Neutral Hold

TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter has maintained their neutral stance on INTC stock, giving a Hold rating yesterday.

Joshua Buchalter has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related to Intel’s near-term performance and longer-term narrative. He notes that the recent share price strength has been fueled more by optimistic expectations than by current fundamentals, and the latest quarter’s guidance undercut that bullish story, with revenue and margin outlooks falling short of what investors had hoped. Persistent supply bottlenecks, including issues around Intel 7 yields and the early stage of 18A, are limiting upside in the short run and weighing on profitability. At the same time, he highlights intensifying competitive pressure from AMD in both PCs and servers, and points out that Intel’s current strategy leans more on managing its own capacity than on clearly demonstrable product superiority.

Despite these challenges, Buchalter sees reasons not to abandon the stock, which supports a Hold rather than a Sell stance. He emphasizes that most of the headwinds were already known, and the recent update did not fundamentally weaken the longer-term case for Intel’s U.S.-based foundry ambitions. Management’s reaffirmed commitment to the advanced 14A node and to expanding foundry and ASIC businesses signals a potentially meaningful opportunity set, albeit on a multi-year horizon. Because the near-term outlook is pressured while the long-term “foundry dream” remains intact but distant, he concludes that the risk/reward profile is balanced, justifying a neutral Hold rating.

In another report released yesterday, Mizuho Securities also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $48.00 price target.