Institutional Support, Royalty Funding, and Risk-Adjusted Valuation Underpin Buy Rating on Northern Dynasty Minerals

Analyst Heiko Ihle of H.C. Wainwright reiterated a Buy rating on Northern Dynasty Minerals, retaining the price target of $2.50.

Heiko Ihle has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors that, in his view, materially enhance Northern Dynasty Minerals’ risk‑adjusted upside. He points first to the recent amicus briefs from major industry and business organizations, which underscore the Pebble Project’s strategic role in securing domestic copper supply for infrastructure, energy transition and defense, while challenging the EPA’s prior veto on economic and legal grounds. He believes this broad-based institutional backing not only highlights the project’s national importance but also strengthens the company’s position in ongoing litigation to overturn the veto. In addition, he emphasizes that the completion of the $60 million royalty funding, combined with Northern Dynasty’s continued full exposure to copper, molybdenum, and rhenium, provides both liquidity and meaningful leverage to the long-term value of the asset.

Heiko Ihle’s rating is based on a valuation framework that already embeds substantial risk, yet still yields material upside to his $2.50 price target. His discounted cash flow is run at a relatively steep 19% discount rate and is supplemented by a conservative 0.015x in-situ value multiple for Pebble’s measured and indicated copper and gold resources, explicitly reflecting permitting, regulatory, and timing uncertainties. He argues that this cautious approach appropriately captures the legal, political, and development risks while leaving room for significant re-rating should court outcomes or permitting decisions turn more favorable. Furthermore, he identifies several near-term catalysts, particularly progress in the federal court case and any permitting-related developments, which, supported by the strengthened balance sheet from the final royalty tranche, could act as powerful drivers for the share price despite ongoing commodity, operational, financial, and political risks.

According to TipRanks, Ihle is a top 25 analyst with an average return of 55.5% and a 72.37% success rate. Ihle covers the Basic Materials sector, focusing on stocks such as Electra Battery Materials Corp, Avino Silver & Gold, and Endeavour Silver.