Incyte: Post-Jakafi Revenue Gap and Execution Risks Undermine Confidence, Justifying Sell Rating

Analyst Evan Seigerman from BMO Capital maintained a Sell rating on Incyte and keeping the price target at $75.00.

Evan Seigerman has given his Sell rating due to a combination of factors tied to Incyte’s post-Jakafi outlook and execution risk. He believes the company’s dependence on Jakafi leaves a substantial revenue gap after loss of exclusivity in 2028/2029 that is not yet convincingly backfilled by the current portfolio. While management outlines a plan to more than double sales from non-Jakafi products (such as Opzelura, Niktimvo, Monjuvi, Zynyz and povorcitinib) and to launch multiple new programs with sizeable peak sales potential, he sees a need for clearer proof that these assets can achieve the scale and timing necessary to offset the Jakafi decline. In particular, he views Opzelura’s growth as vulnerable to practical constraints like lower real-world tube usage and questions whether the long-term $3–4B ex-Jakafi revenue target is attainable without stronger commercial evidence.

At the pipeline level, Seigerman acknowledges encouraging data and meaningful market opportunities in areas like mutCALR-driven therapies, tafasitamab in first-line DLBCL, and JAK pathway assets such as V617Fi and povorcitinib, but he considers the story still too early and execution-dependent to materially de-risk the post-Jakafi transition. He notes that assets like povorcitinib and axatilimab, while promising, are unlikely to fully solve the structural earnings pressure after Jakafi’s patent expiry. Furthermore, he highlights that Jakafi’s own growth trajectory is already decelerating despite indication expansions, which reinforces his concerns about the durability of the company’s core earnings base. Finally, he points out that Incyte’s capital allocation approach appears to constrain its ability to pursue transformative business development, increasing reliance on internal R&D and successful commercialization of a broad and complex pipeline, a setup he views as skewed to the downside for current shareholders.