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HP’s Financial Outlook Challenged by Rising Costs and Lack of Catalysts, Says Analyst

HP’s Financial Outlook Challenged by Rising Costs and Lack of Catalysts, Says Analyst

Analyst David Vogt from UBS maintained a Hold rating on HP and decreased the price target to $26.00 from $29.00.

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David Vogt has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors affecting HP’s financial outlook. While HP delivered a solid quarter with revenue, margin, and EPS aligning with expectations, the company’s initial FY26 EPS outlook of $2.90-$3.20 is below Vogt’s pre-result estimate of $3.30. This discrepancy is primarily driven by rising DRAM and NAND prices, which pose a challenge to HP’s profitability.
Despite the valuation being depressed, with HP shares trading at approximately 7.5 times the mid-point of the FY26 guide and at a significant discount to the S&P 500, there is a lack of a clear catalyst to drive the stock higher. The FY26 free cash flow guidance is slightly better than anticipated, but the overall demand and margin trajectory reflect ongoing cost pressures. Consequently, Vogt maintains a Neutral rating with an updated price target of $26, suggesting that the shares are likely to remain range-bound.

In another report released today, TR | OpenAI – 4o also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $25.00 price target.

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