Hold Rating on OneStream: Upside Capped by Hg Takeout Premium, Downside Supported by Cash Deal

Onestream, Inc. Class A, the Technology sector company, was revisited by a Wall Street analyst yesterday. Analyst Daniel Jester from BMO Capital downgraded the rating on the stock to a Hold and gave it a $24.00 price target.

Daniel Jester has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related primarily to OneStream’s pending acquisition. He notes that the agreed $24 per share cash offer from Hg Capital represents a meaningful premium to the prior trading price and implies a transaction multiple that is broadly in line with comparable software deals, indicating limited scope for a substantially higher valuation in the near term. In his view, the company’s solid operational progress since its IPO has been offset by lingering questions about the sustainability of its growth trajectory in a tougher enterprise software spending environment, which likely constrained the ultimate takeout price. He also emphasizes that the transaction is not expected to attract competing bids, reinforcing the sense that upside from current levels is capped by the agreed deal economics.

At the same time, Jester highlights that the acquisition outcome provides downside support for the stock, as the cash consideration and lack of anticipated rival offers make the path to deal completion reasonably clear heading into an expected close in the first half of 2026. This risk-reward setup, with a defined ceiling tied to the offer price and limited incremental upside catalysts, underpins his decision to move to a neutral stance. He further observes that, while the transaction has positive read-throughs for other finance-office software names and underscores the strategic value of the space, the broader sector still faces a slow-burning fundamental re-rating that may take time to materialize. Taken together, these dynamics justify maintaining a Hold view rather than recommending investors either aggressively buy or sell the shares at this stage.

According to TipRanks, Jester is a 3-star analyst with an average return of 3.9% and a 48.11% success rate. Jester covers the Technology sector, focusing on stocks such as Procore Technologies, Autodesk, and Intuit.