Hold Rating on OneStream Reflects Fair Takeout Valuation and Limited Upside Given High Deal-Closure Probability

Morgan Stanley analyst Chris Quintero downgraded the rating on Onestream, Inc. Class A to a Hold yesterday, setting a price target of $24.00.

Chris Quintero has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors that make the current offer price appear reasonable but limit further upside for public shareholders. He notes that Hg’s all-cash bid of $24 per share values OneStream at roughly 8x expected 2026 sales, which is only modestly below typical software acquisition multiples and peer valuations. While he sees room for stronger growth than consensus currently assumes—implying the deal multiple could be even more attractive for the buyer—he also points out that a valuation in line with historic transaction averages would have supported a somewhat higher price, reflecting OneStream’s strong platform positioning and exceptional customer retention.

At the same time, Quintero views the deal as highly likely to close, as KKR’s controlling stake has already secured shareholder approval and regulatory risk appears limited given the fragmented nature of the financial applications and EPM markets. Even if OneStream and Hg’s other asset, insightsoftware, are combined, their collective market share would remain relatively small compared with key competitors, reducing antitrust concerns. With the transaction price effectively capped at $24 per share and the probability of completion high, he sees limited scope for additional share price appreciation, justifying a neutral, or Hold, stance on the stock.