Hold Rating on ON24 Reflects Rich Cvent Takeout Valuation and Limited Upside Beyond Deal-Closure Risk

Needham analyst Scott Berg has maintained their neutral stance on ONTF stock, giving a Hold rating today.

Scott Berg has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to the announced acquisition by Cvent. The agreed purchase price of $8.10 per share implies a sizable premium to ON24’s recent trading levels, particularly relative to its 90-day volume-weighted average price. He also highlights that, at roughly 1.6x his FY26 revenue estimate, the deal value looks attractive when set against ON24’s current trajectory of modest revenue decline and its ongoing lack of profitability. Given the richness of the takeout valuation compared with the company’s standalone prospects, there appears to be limited additional upside for equity holders in the public market.

In addition, Berg notes that the transaction structure and strategic fit reduce the likelihood of a competing bid emerging. He points out that there is no meaningful overlap between Cvent’s and ON24’s product portfolios, which should help the deal clear regulatory review without significant friction. The transaction is targeted to close in the first half of 2026, and with a clear buyer and a defined takeout price, the risk-reward profile skews toward a more neutral stance rather than a bullish one. As a result, the stock’s return potential now largely reflects deal-closure risk rather than fundamental business improvement, supporting his Hold recommendation.