Hold Rating Maintained Amid Change-of-Control Uncertainty, Regulatory Risks, and Capped Upside from Tender Offer Premium

In a report released today, Matteo Bonizzoni from Kepler Capital maintained a Hold rating on EuroGroup Laminations S.p.A, with a price target of €3.85.

Matteo Bonizzoni has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to the ongoing change-of-control process and its uncertainties. On the positive side, the Golden Power authorization obtained in Italy removes a key regulatory obstacle and supports the prospect that FountainVest could eventually take control and promote longer‑term investments, technology upgrades, and geographic expansion, particularly in Asia’s fast‑growing EV market. The proposed deal price also embeds a substantial premium versus the pre-announcement share price, which places an implicit ceiling on upside in the near term as the market anchors to the tender offer level.

However, the interruption of the foreign investment approval process in India and the need to evaluate options such as a possible carve‑out of the Kumar subsidiary add execution risk and create visibility issues around the final structure and perimeter of the group. Since EGLA is not a contractual party to the EMS–FountainVest agreement and cannot provide guidance on how negotiations or regulatory proceedings will evolve, there is a meaningful level of uncertainty around both timing and outcome of the transaction. Combined with the recent profit warning and the limited contribution of the Indian business to overall revenues, these elements lead Bonizzoni to see a balanced risk‑reward profile at current levels, justifying a Hold recommendation rather than a more directional call.

Bonizzoni covers the Industrials sector, focusing on stocks such as Fincantieri S.p.A., Leonardo Spa, and Nexans. According to TipRanks, Bonizzoni has an average return of 20.0% and a 65.04% success rate on recommended stocks.