Evolus: Realistic Guidance Reset and Durable Growth Drivers Support Buy Rating and $20 Target

In a report released today, Douglas Tsao from H.C. Wainwright reiterated a Buy rating on Evolus, with a price target of $20.00.

Douglas Tsao has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors tied to Evolus’s growth profile and recalibrated expectations. While the company significantly reduced its long‑term revenue outlook for 2028 to $450–500 million from prior guidance of at least $700 million, Tsao views this more conservative stance as a realistic reset that the company is well positioned to achieve. Recent quarterly results and 4Q revenue guidance are broadly aligned with market expectations, and importantly, Evolus reaffirmed positive non‑GAAP operating income, indicating improving profitability despite a tougher macro backdrop. Tsao believes that, although investors are reacting negatively to the guidance cut, the lower bar increases the likelihood of future outperformance and creates a more favorable setup for the stock over time.
In addition, Tsao highlights that Evolus still anticipates growing faster than the overall aesthetics market, supported by share gains and an expanding product portfolio. The upcoming contributions from Evolysse and Estyme hyaluronic acid filler products are expected to represent a meaningful share of 2026 revenue, with the launch of the Sculpt product in late 2026 viewed as particularly important. Management also targets sustainable annual profitability starting in 2026 and projects a solid three‑year revenue CAGR in the mid‑teens, alongside double‑digit non‑GAAP operating income margins by 2028. Taken together, Tsao interprets these dynamics as evidence of durable growth and improving earnings power, which underpin his Buy rating on Evolus shares and $20 price target.

In another report released today, Mizuho Securities also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a $19.00 price target.