Edenred: Balanced Risk-Reward and Limited Near-Term Catalysts Justify Hold Amid Regulatory Uncertainty

In a report released today, Hannes Leitner from Jefferies maintained a Hold rating on EDENRED, with a price target of €17.70.

Hannes Leitner has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related to Edenred’s near‑term outlook and regulatory risks. After discussions with management, he made only minor adjustments to his forecasts, mainly reflecting currency effects, the buyback program, and share count changes, suggesting limited upside to estimates at this stage. He expects the underlying business trends seen in the third quarter—excluding the impact from Italy’s commission cap—to continue into the fourth quarter, pointing to a relatively stable but unspectacular operating performance.

Leitner anticipates that Latin America, and particularly Brazil, will remain the main engine of growth, while European operations are likely to stay soft despite some seasonal support from the gift-voucher business. The Italian regulatory cap on commissions continues to weigh on profitability, and any boost from the holiday season is expected to only partially offset this drag. Overall, he views upcoming results as broadly in line with expectations, with limited catalysts for a re‑rating in the short term. As a result, he sees a balanced risk‑reward profile and maintains a Hold recommendation while awaiting further clarity on the evolving Brazilian regulatory framework.