Domino’s Pizza: Balanced Risk-Reward and Category Headwinds Justify Hold Rating and Lowered $460 Price Target

Domino’s Pizza, the Consumer Cyclical sector company, was revisited by a Wall Street analyst today. Analyst Andrew Charles from TD Cowen downgraded the rating on the stock to a Hold and gave it a $460.00 price target.

Andrew Charles has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to Domino’s growth outlook and valuation. He trims his expectations for U.S. same-store sales in 2026 to levels below both the company’s long‑term algorithm and consensus, reflecting persistent weakness in the pizza delivery segment and pressure on lower‑income consumers. While he credits management for being nimble with new value‑oriented price points and menu initiatives, he believes the business has leaned more heavily into discounting than initially anticipated, which could constrain profitability. As a result, his adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2026–2027 are modestly below the Street, and he lowers his price target to $460.

Andrew Charles also frames the stock’s risk‑reward as relatively balanced at current levels, limiting the case for a more aggressive rating. His scenario analysis suggests a downside value near $390 versus a base‑case closer to $460, implying a fairly tight trading band and a capped upside until broader category headwinds ease. In his view, Domino’s can continue to gain share within a challenged delivery market, but the overall category drag acts as a ceiling on the multiple investors are likely to pay. Taken together, these elements lead him to conclude that the shares are appropriately valued, justifying a Hold rather than a Buy recommendation.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 65 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is negative on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders selling their shares of DPZ in relation to earlier this year.