Dexcom: Reset Expectations, Strengthened Fundamentals, and Operating Leverage Support Reiterated Buy Rating

William Blair analyst Brandon Vazquez has maintained their bullish stance on DXCM stock, giving a Buy rating on January 5.

Brandon Vazquez has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors that, in his view, position Dexcom for upside versus current expectations. He believes near-term results could beat forecasts because internal assumptions for new U.S. patients and sensor usage appear intentionally cautious relative to typical fourth-quarter seasonality and year-to-date utilization trends. He also sees room for longer-term growth to outpace his current projections as the company resolves temporary supply constraints, refocuses its commercial efforts, and potentially benefits from expanded Medicare coverage to type 2 non–insulin users. In addition, he expects operating leverage to drive robust earnings expansion, supported by improved manufacturing efficiency, the introduction of the 15-day sensor, and easing pricing pressure as Dexcom’s U.S. revenue per patient settles at a more sustainable premium to competitors.

Brandon Vazquez’s rating is based on the view that Dexcom is entering 2026 in a structurally better position than in recent years, with management turnover and supply disruptions largely behind it and a refreshed product portfolio ahead. He interprets the company’s early commentary on 2026 expectations as resetting the bar to a level that a new CEO can meet or exceed, reducing the risk of negative surprises. With the stock trading at roughly 28.5 times his 2026 earnings estimate, he considers the valuation reasonable when weighed against the company’s status as one of the fastest-growing earnings stories in medical technology. Taken together, he concludes that the current share price offers an appealing risk-reward profile, supporting his decision to reiterate a Buy recommendation on Dexcom shares.

In another report released on January 5, Bank of America Securities also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a $100.00 price target.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 64 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is positive on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders buying their shares of DXCM in relation to earlier this year.