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Conservative Outlook for Simply Good Foods: Hold Rating Amid Strategic Shifts and Economic Uncertainties

Conservative Outlook for Simply Good Foods: Hold Rating Amid Strategic Shifts and Economic Uncertainties

Analyst Megan Alexander from Morgan Stanley maintained a Hold rating on Simply Good Foods (SMPLResearch Report) and decreased the price target to $36.00 from $37.00.

Megan Alexander’s rating is based on a combination of factors influencing the Simply Good Foods Company’s future performance. The company’s management has not reiterated its previous expectation to achieve the high-end of its long-term growth algorithm for FY26, which has led to a more conservative outlook. The company’s strategy to replace lower-performing Atkins SKUs with higher-performing Quest/OWYN SKUs indicates a shift in focus, but also suggests potential pressure on the Atkins brand, with anticipated organic sales decline.
Additionally, there are uncertainties related to tariffs and their potential impact on consumer demand, as well as headwinds from input cost inflation. While the company is expected to benefit from productivity efforts and synergies, these improvements are anticipated to be more pronounced in the second half of FY26. Consequently, Megan Alexander has moderated the FY26 EBITDA estimate and adjusted the price target, resulting in a Hold rating for the stock.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 53 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is negative on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders selling their shares of SMPL in relation to earlier this year.

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