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CNH Industrial: Approaching Earnings Trough with Upside to Consensus and Attractive Valuation Justifying Buy Rating

CNH Industrial: Approaching Earnings Trough with Upside to Consensus and Attractive Valuation Justifying Buy Rating

In a report released today, Daniela Costa from Goldman Sachs upgraded CNH Industrial to a Buy, with a price target of $13.00.

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Daniela Costa has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors related to CNH Industrial’s earnings cycle, outlook, and valuation. She believes that the company is nearing the bottom of its earnings downturn, with 2026 likely representing the trough year for the business, despite ongoing tariff-related pressures and weak recent share price performance versus peers. Her industrial EBIT forecasts for 2026 and 2027 stand meaningfully above market consensus, suggesting that current expectations underestimate CNH’s profit potential as the cycle normalizes.
In addition, she highlights that management’s cost reduction measures and growth opportunities in precision agriculture should provide incremental support to margins and earnings over the next few years. When coupled with a valuation that appears attractive relative to both its own history and the wider capital goods sector, the risk-reward profile, in her view, is tilted favorably for investors. This combination of a likely earnings trough, upside to consensus estimates, and a discounted share price underpins her decision to upgrade the stock to a Buy rating, with a materially higher price target implying substantial potential upside from current levels.

In another report released yesterday, Citi also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a $12.00 price target.

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